On World Statistics Day, October 20, 2010, the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), the UN agency for ICT, announced its eagerly awaited mobile estimates for 2010. By the end of the year, there will be 5.3 billion mobile subscriptions. That is equivalent to 76 percent of the world population. And is a huge increase from 4.6 billion mobile subscriptions at the end of 2009. Nearly a billion of these are 3G subscriptions, and potentially mobile Web users.
• All the new 2010 ITU statistics follow the interview. They are sub-divided by continents, developed and developing nations.
Q&A: Susan Teltscher, head of market information and statistics, Telecommunication Development Bureau, ITU
1) How significant is it that we have now surpassed 5 billion mobile subscriptions worldwide?
Mobile telephony is becoming more and more ubiquitous. In developed countries, the growth is slowing down, with average penetration rates above 100 percent. But in developing countries, growth is still strong and therefore more and more people will be connected to telephones who never had access to a telephone at all in the past. In this sense, the mobile revolution is continuing.
2) How does this compare to fixed phone lines?
The number of fixed lines continues to stagnate, as a result of the fixed-to-mobile substitution effect, coupled with the limited infrastructure for fixed communications in developing countries.
3) When do you expect that we will hit 6 billion?
We haven’t calculated this yet.
4) Where in the world is driving growth in 2010 and into 2011?
Growth in mobile cellular subscriptions is driven by developing countries, especially from the Asia and Pacific region. It is likely that this will continue to fuel growth.
5) What is driving growth in 2010 and into 2011?
Growth of telecoms is driven by the demand for broadband, both fixed and mobile. To date this growth has mainly been driven by demand in developed countries, but increasingly also in developing countries. In developing countries growth is mainly through mobile broadband, but differs among countries.
6) Why is this growth so important?
When it comes to Internet access, there is still a huge digital divide between developed and developing countries. The emergence of 3G networks and services will increasingly allow users to access the Internet through mobile networks. This is particularly important in developing countries, where fixed broadband infrastructure is very limited.
7) In what ways and to what extent is the mobile phone closing the divide between developing and developed nations?
Mobile phones are closing the divide, as they are bringing telecommunications to many people in developing countries who previously did not have access to a telephone. The mobile cellular penetration rate in developing countries will reach 68 percent by the end of the year – higher than any other type of ICT previously – and this has happened within a very short time period.
8) How many mobile broadband subscriptions are there?
By the end of 2010, we estimate there will be around 940 million mobile broadband subscriptions. This refers to the number of subscriptions to mobile cellular networks with access to data communications (e.g. the Internet) at broadband downstream speeds that are greater than or equal to 256 Kbits.
Note that this refers to potential mobile broadband subscriptions and not active subscriptions.
9) What proportion of the 5.3 billion phones are able to access the Internet?
Around 18 percent (this corresponds to the 940 million subscriptions to 3G networks).
10) What/where is driving this growth in mobile Web access?
Currently, the key growth areas are Europe and the US. Pricing structures play an important role, for example, the introduction of packages with flat-rate fees has increased mobile Web use significantly.
11) In February the ITU said: “With current growth rates, Web access by people on the move — via laptops and smart mobile devices – is likely to exceed web access from desktop computers within the next five years.” Is this still the case?
This is very likely to happen, but as we haven’t done the actual calculations yet, we couldn’t say for sure.
These are the latest estimates for 2010 from the Susan Teltscher’s department at the ITU. Year-on-year comparisons from 2005-2010 are available from the ITU here. Background information and charts are available in this presentation.
| Key Global Telecom Indicators for the World Telecommunication Service Sector in 2010(all figures are estimates) | |||||||||
| Global | Developednations | Developingnations | Africa | ArabStates | Asia & Pacific | CIS | Europe | The Americas | |
| Mobile cellular subscriptions (millions) | 5,282 | 1,436 | 3,846 | 333 | 282 | 2,649 | 364 | 741 | 880 |
| Per 100 people | 76.2% | 116.1% | 67.6% | 41.4% | 79.4% | 67.8% | 131.5% | 120.0% | 94.1% |
| Fixed telephone lines (millions) | 1,197 | 506 | 691 | 13 | 33 | 549 | 74 | 249 | 262 |
| Per 100 people | 17.3% | 40.9% | 12.1% | 1.6% | 9.4% | 14.0% | 26.6% | 40.3% | 28.1% |
| Mobile broadband subscriptions (millions) | 940 | 631 | 309 | 29 | 34 | 278 | 72 | 286 | 226 |
| Per 100 people | 13.6% | 51.1% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 25.9% | 46.3% | 24.2% |
| Fixed broadband subscriptions (millions) | 555 | 304 | 251 | 1 | 8 | 223 | 24 | 148 | 145 |
| per 100 people | 8.0% | 24.6% | 4.4% | 0.2% | 2.3% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 23.9% | 15.5% |
| Source: International Telecommunication Union (October 2010) | via: mobiThinking | ||||||||
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P.S. (01-11-10) Thanks to Antoine RJ Wright – for including this post in the latest Carnival of the Mobilists, a weekly roundup of the best in mobile and wireless blogs.
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