FINDING YOUR WAY AROUND THE MOBILE STATS COMPENDIUM:
Home: Full index of contents and highlights • Section A: Mobile subscribers; handset share • Section B: Mobile Web; 3G • Section C: Mobile marketing, advertising and messaging • Section D: Consumer mobile behavior • Section E: Mobile apps, app stores • Section F: Mobile payment, NFC, m-commerce, m-ticketing and m-coupons • Section G: Mobile financial services (MFS) and m-banking • Section H: VC investment in mobile.
Section F: Mobile payment, including m-commerce, near-field communications/contactless payments, m-ticketing and m-coupons
1) Mobile payments (m-payments)
2) Top countries for m-payments
3) NFC tap & go payments
4) Mobile commerce (m-commerce)
5) Mobile shopping consumer behavior
6) Top m-commerce retailers
7) Mobile tickets (m-ticketing)
8) Mobile coupons (m-coupons)
1) Mobile payments (m-payments)
Worldwide mobile payments (m-payments) are growing strongly, but will still only be worth a fraction of e-commerce payments: N.B. definitions of m-payments may vary between analyst groups.
• Merchandise purchases (e.g. via Amazon and eBay) account for most of m-payments in developed markets.
• Money transfers and prepaid top-ups account for most of m-payments. Travel ticketing and parking are also expected to be popular in developing markets.
• Gartner (May 2012): there will be 212.2 million m-payment users in 2011 (up from 160.5 million in 2011), m-payments will total US $171.5 billion in 2012 (up 61.9 percent from $105.9 billion in 2011).
• Gartner predicts that in 2016 there will be 448 million m-payment users, in a market worth $617 billion. Asia/Pacific will have the most m-payment users, but Africa will account for the highest revenues.
• Mobile Web is expected to dominate mobile payments in North America and Europe through to 2016. SMS is expected to remain the key vehicle for m-payments in developing markets. NFC transactions will remain relatively low through 2015, but will start to pick up from 2016.
• Yankee Group (June 2011): Global mobile transactions predicted to be US$241 billion in 2011 growing to more than $1 Trillion by 2015.
• EMEA is the mobile money hot spot, says Yankee, accounting for 41 percent of mobile transactions value in 2011, compared to 35 percent in North America, 22 percent in Asia-Pacific and just 1 percent in Latin America.
• Portio Research (March 2010): There were 81.3 million people worldwide using their mobile device to make payments (including in-app payments, mobile ticketing and mobile coupons) in 2009. By the end of 2014, this is forecasted to rise to nearly 490 million (8 percent of mobile subscribers).
• The volume of m-payments i.e. face value of purchases and transactions was US$68.7 billion in 2009, rising to US$633.4 billion by end-2014.
• Juniper Research (July 2011 ): Total value of mobile payments for digital and physical goods, money transfers and NFC (Near Field Communications) transactions will reach $670bn by 2015, up from $240bn this year.
• Estimates include mobile ticketing, NFC contactless payments, physical goods purchases and money transfers.
• Active mobile money users will double by 2013.
• Digital goods is the largest segment and will account for nearly 40% of the market in 2015.
• Juniper Research (June 2011): 1.8 billion consumers globally will buy digital goods via their mobile in 2011, this will rise to 2.5 billion in 2015.
For example, in 2015, more than 400 million people on the Indian Sub-Continent will purchase digital goods via mobile.
• But IDC (May 2010) believes that in EMEA, m-payments will take off slower than m-banking, forecasting that less than 13 percent of mobile subscribers will be registered to use m-payments and volume of m-payments will be no more than $125 billion. Thus m-payments will take off slower than many industry observers hope, due to the complexity and set-up costs for retailers. However, strong growth in m-banking will lay the foundations for growth in mobile payments.
“Mobile handsets are in an excellent position to become the primary digital channel for providers of banking and related financial services in emerging markets” – Berg Insight.
• See Section G: for all the stats on mobile financial services, including m-banking and money transfers
2) Top countries for m-payments
While the rest of the world trial/dream of payment by mobile, in Japan it is already a way of life.
ComScore (February 2011) research indicates that in December 2010 alone, 9.8 million or 10 percent of Japanese mobile subscribers used their mobile wallet to make a purchase. 7.6 million consumers made a purchase in a retail/convenience store; 3.2 million purchased from a vending machine; 2.7 million paid for public transport; 2.6 million purchased in a grocery stores; and 1.5 million paid a restaurant bill all using their mobile phone, instead of cash, card or check.
• 47 million Japanese have adopted tap-and-go phones in three years – this is one of the fastest roll outs of electronic products in human history. East Asians will continue lead this market because governments and industry stop inter-industry haggling enabling projects that benefit the nation go ahead. (IDTechEx (R&M), Feb 2011).
3) Near-field communications (NFC) tap & go payments
But tap-and-go m-payments will take off elsewhere as the world adopts near-field communications and more NFC-enabled phones hit the market:
• Juniper Research (June 2011): Global NFC m-payment transactions will be almost US$50 billion worldwide by 2014. 20 countries are expected to launch NFC services in the next 18 months.
• Yankee Group (June 2011): There will be 7 million NFC-enabled phones in 2011 growing to 203 million in 2015.
• Juniper Research (April 2011): Almost 300 million or 1 in 5 or smartphones worldwide will be NFC-enabled by 2014.
• IE Market Research (July 2010): NFC will be 32.8 percent of global m-payments transactions – estimated at US$1.13 trillion – in 2014. Volume shipments of NFC phones are expected in Western Europe and North America in 2011.
• Frost & Sullivan (February 2011): 863 million units or 53 percent of new handsets will be NFC-enabled in 2015. The total payment value for NFC globally will exceed €110 billion in 2015.
• Celent (November 2010): There will be 169 million users of mobile contactless payment in China in 2013. Total number of m-payment users will be 410 million, making China the largest m-payments market in the world.
• NFC Chip Makers predict there will be at least 40-50 million NFC phones on the market by 2011, based on orders for NFC chip sets (NFC Times, Oct, 2010).
• mobiThinking note on NFC: recent announcements from everyone from Google to Vodafone has created a media frenzy around NFC. The fact is that seven years after the foundation of the NFC forum there are almost no NFC phones on the market. NFC more than any other technology requires close cooperation of all parties – this was the secret of success of FeliCa in Japan (which isn’t NFC, but the model is similar). Find out more: The essential ingredients for the success of NFC
4) Mobile commerce (m-commerce) and mobile retail (m-retail)
4a) Shopping on the mobile Web, i.e. m-commerce will reach US$119 billion in 2015, predicts ABI Research(February 2010), that’s about 8 percent of the total e-commerce market:
• Today, Japan is king of m-commerce, where mobile Web shopping exceeded US$10 billion in 2009, making the US$1.2 billion bought in the US by mobile look trifling.
For more insight on Japan, see this: guide to mobile in Japan
• M-commerce in Europe is expected to outpace the US by the end of 2010.
• Long-term growth in m-commerce will come from developing nations where mobile is virtually the only way to access the Internet.
4b) In the US, m-commerce revenues are expected to hit $6 billion by the end of 2011, growing to $31 billion by 2016, according to Forrester Research (June 2011).
• But m-commerce will only be 2 percent of e-commerce in 2011 and 7 percent of e-commerce in 2016.
• m-commerce includes mobile media and content, retail, travel, coupons/deals, and services
• 91 percent of online retailers in the US have a mobile strategy in place or in development, according to Shop.org/Forrester Research (May 2011)
• 48 percent of US retailers surveyed had a mobile-optimized website; 35 percent had deployed an iPhone app; 15 percent deployed an Android app; 15 percent had deployed an iPad app.
5) Mobile shopping consumer behavior
Four out of five US smartphone owners, use phone to help with shopping, according to Google/Ipsos (April 2011). A survey of 5013 US smartphone owners found:
• 79 percent use a smartphone to help with shopping and 70 percent use phone in store.
• Of those: 54 percent located a retailer; 49 percent compare prices to help decide; 34 percent search in-store inventory; 44 percent read reviews and product info; 46 percent called a retailer; 40 percent looked for promotions and discounts; 28 percent used a discount coupon on phone.
• 74 percent of smartphone shoppers have made purchase following research on phone.
• Of those: 76 percent purchased in store; 59 percent purchased on their PCs; 35 percent purchased on their smartphones; 27 percent purchased via a mobile site; 22 percent purchased through a mobile app.
• The average annual spend on mobile purchases was US$300.
6) Top m-commerce retailers
• In 2009, the top m-commerce retailer according to Altimeter Group (June 2010) was Taobao, (part of Chinese Web giant Alibaba Group) with an estimated $800 million in revenues.
• “In the last twelve months, customers around the world have ordered more than US$1 billion of products from Amazon using a mobile device,” according to Jeff Bezos, Amazon.com (July 2010).
• On eBay, in 2011, people purchased $5 billion of goods using their mobile. In 2012, eBay projects this will rise to $8 billion. (eBay, January 2012).
• PayPal expects to see $7 billion in mobile payment volume in 2012. (PayPal, January 2012).
mobiThinking note on eBay and Paypal: The eBay figure is gross merchandise volume (GMV), which is the amount of goods bought and sold in the market place, rather than actual revenue made by eBay, which takes a percentage of sales over its platform. PayPal, is an online payment system, owned by eBay. eBay encourages its customers to use PayPal, thus there could be considerable overlap between the eBay and the PayPal figures.
7) Mobile tickets (m-ticketing) for travel and entertainment
1 in 8 mobile subscribers will use m-ticketing in 2015 for airline, rail and bus travel, festivals, cinemas and sports events.
• Jupiter Research (March 2011): By 2015, over 750 million users will either have a ticket delivered to their mobile phone or buy a ticket with their phone, compared to 230 million today. Ticket delivery will be by SMS, bar codes, mobile web, smartphone apps or NFC.
• Jupiter Research (April 2011): 500 million people worldwide to use their mobiles as metro and bus tickets by 2015. This is over five times growth from 2010.
• Outside Japan (which uses contactless payments, similar to NFC) systems in operation typically use SMS or bar codes, as are currently used in Stockholm and Prague.
• NFC-based systems will start to take off from 2013.
• Jupiter Research (March 2011): In 2010, airlines issued 160 million mobile boarding passes. By 2013, this will be 480 million or one in seven boarding passes. Today 30 airlines offer mobile boarding passes, half of these also offer mobile ticket booking and purchasing.
8) Mobile coupons (m-coupons)
M-coupons will dominate mobile retail marketing spend until 2013, according to Juniper Research (March 2010):
• Mobile retail will exceed US$12 billion by 2014 (mobile retail is defined as m-coupon redemption values, smart poster fees and advertising expenditure).
• The mobile retail sector would initially be dominated by coupons, but mobile advertising expenditure will exceed coupon redemption values by 2013
– The m-coupon service of McDonald’s Japan is used by 4.5 million users, according to Infinita (March 2010).
– The United Nations’ World Food Programme (WFP) (October 2010) plans to use m-vouchers to deliver food aid to 40,000 Iraqi refugees in Syria by the end of 2010.
FINDING YOUR WAY AROUND THE MOBILE STATS COMPENDIUM:
Home: Full index of contents and highlights • Section A: Mobile subscribers; handset share • Section B: Mobile Web; 3G • Section C: Mobile marketing, advertising and messaging • Section D: Consumer mobile behavior • Section E: Mobile apps, app stores • Section F: Mobile payment, NFC, m-commerce, m-ticketing and m-coupons • Section G: Mobile financial services (MFS) and m-banking • Section H: VC investment in mobile.
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• Guide to mobile ad networks 2012 • with 5 new ad networks •
• Most popular content on mobiThinking in 2011
• Mobile events 2012: best conferences, great discounts and free tickets
• The insider’s guide to mobile device security
• The mobile city project – the blueprint of a truly mobilized city
• The insider’s guide to device detection
• The insiders’ guides to world’s greatest mobile markets
• Guide to mobile agencies
• Guide to mobile industry awards
• The big compendium of global mobile stats
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